Societal & Institutional Integrity
increasing

Erosion of Institutions & Norms

Gutting federal agencies; undermining watchdogs and inspectors general; disrupting data transparency; mass firings of career officials; dismantling oversight capacity

8.0
High
Domain Avg7.5
Suppression of Freedom of Expression7
Updated2026-04-02

Why This Score

This category scores 8/10, placing it in the High tier (7-8): “Systematic hollowing out, data suppression, mass purges of career officials

  • 1.Federal workforce losses now exceed 350,000 departed (up from 300,000+ two weeks ago); OPM pursuing further reductions as 'priority number one'; Schedule F active with agencies submitting reclassification petitions for 50,000+ positions (TIME/Federal News Network)
  • 2.Inspector general offices lost 16.6% of workforce — exceeding government-wide average; SSA IG office caught altering report on call wait times; replacement IGs have partisan ties and oversight agency histories (Public Citizen/Common Dreams)
  • 3.National Security Archive published 'Disappearing Data Chronology' documenting 8,000+ web pages and 3,400+ datasets removed from public access; CDC, Census Bureau, FDA, EPA, NOAA hardest hit; data covering decades of health, education, and civil rights research (National Security Archive)

Score History

July 2025Score: 6
August 202567

Firing of 17 inspectors general in single action; courts ruled action unlawful but declined to order reinstatement; DOGE gained access to sensitive federal payment and personnel systems

September 2025Score: 7
October 2025Score: 7
November 2025Score: 7
December 2025Score: 7
January 2026Score: 7
February 202678

322,000+ federal employees departed (largest reduction in US history); 75%+ IG positions vacant; 8,000+ web pages and 3,000 datasets removed from public access; layoff moratorium expired

March 2026Score: 8

Scoring Rubric

1-2

Independent civil service, robust oversight mechanisms, routine reorganization

3-4

Elevated departures, some data access concerns, political pressure on civil servants

5-6

Significant workforce reductions, IG independence compromised, loyalty tests for officials

7-8Current

Systematic hollowing out, data suppression, mass purges of career officials

9-10

Agencies non-functional, transparency destroyed, complete politicization of government

Key Findings

1

Federal workforce losses now exceed 350,000 departed (up from 300,000+ two weeks ago); OPM pursuing further reductions as 'priority number one'; Schedule F active with agencies submitting reclassification petitions for 50,000+ positions (TIME/Federal News Network)

2

Inspector general offices lost 16.6% of workforce — exceeding government-wide average; SSA IG office caught altering report on call wait times; replacement IGs have partisan ties and oversight agency histories (Public Citizen/Common Dreams)

3

National Security Archive published 'Disappearing Data Chronology' documenting 8,000+ web pages and 3,400+ datasets removed from public access; CDC, Census Bureau, FDA, EPA, NOAA hardest hit; data covering decades of health, education, and civil rights research (National Security Archive)

Scenario Outlook

All scenarios →
Supreme Court rules president cannot fire Federal Reserve governors (Trump v. Cook)
high-1

Reinforces protections for independent agency heads across government

Warsh confirmation delayed past May, leaving Fed without confirmed chair
high+1

Unprecedented gap in central bank leadership undermines institutional credibility

Federal court issues injunction blocking Schedule F mass firings
moderate-1

Temporarily halts reclassification of career civil servants

First wave of Schedule F firings targets 10,000+ policy-adjacent career staff
high+1

Accelerates loss of institutional knowledge and independent expertise

Court orders reinstatement of fired inspectors general
low-2

Restores independent oversight capacity

Officials held in contempt of court receive presidential pardons, neutralizing judicial enforcement
high+1

Destroys the constitutional check of judicial review

Congress passes legislation limiting federal court jurisdiction over executive actions
high+1

Fundamentally alters separation of powers

Bipartisan procurement reform bill strengthens competitive bidding requirements
low-1

Strengthens merit-based government operations

DOGE official's conflicts of interest trigger congressional investigation or criminal referral
moderate-1

Accountability mechanisms activated

Democrats win House majority in 2026 midterms, establishing congressional check
moderate-2

Restores congressional oversight, subpoena power, and funding leverage

SCOTUS overturns Humphrey's Executor in Trump v. Slaughter, giving president unrestricted power to fire independent agency heads
high+2

President gains power to fire heads of FTC, FCC, NLRB, SEC, CFPB, and other independent agencies

DOJ investigation of Fed Chair Powell expands or results in indictment, creating constitutional crisis over central bank independence
moderate+1

Criminal investigation of sitting Fed Chair unprecedented; signals willingness to criminalize institutional independence

SSA Inspector General refers DOGE data exfiltration case to DOJ for criminal investigation
moderate-1

Accountability mechanism activated; IG investigation demonstrates watchdog independence

Trump-backed primary challengers defeat incumbent Republican senators, reinforcing loyalty-based party discipline ahead of midterms
moderate+1

Congressional oversight further weakened as elected officials prioritize presidential loyalty

Bipartisan coalition passes Reclaim Trade Powers Act repealing Section 122, permanently ending unilateral tariff authority
low-1

Congress reasserts constitutional role over commerce

Economic Sensitivity

Full analysis →
Foreign Direct InvestmentStrong institutions fundamental for FDI confidence-48.3% YoY
US Dollar Index (DXY)Institutional strength underpins reserve currency-3.5% YoY
Business InvestmentWeak institutions reduce long-term investment horizon-28.1% YoY
S&P 500Weak institutions reduce long-term investment confidence+1.2% YoY
GDP GrowthWeak institutions reduce investment and productivity-70.8% YoY