US Political Risk Assessment

Tracking political risk for business across 11 key indicators

Threat Environment Briefing

2026-04-02

The US political risk environment remains at High levels (7.1/10), with 0 categories at or near crisis thresholds.

Key Developments This Period

  • •Trump signed EO directing USPS to gatekeep mail-in ballots (March 31); DOJ voter roll lawsuits expanded to 30+ states; Florida, South Dakota, Utah enacted proof-of-citizenship laws
  • •DHS shutdown reached day 47 (longest on record); Iran conflict pushed oil past $120/barrel; Moody's recession probability at 49%; 'No Kings' March 28 protest drew 8-9 million (largest in US history)
  • •DOGE terminated $120B in contracts/grants with zero cuts to Musk-linked companies; university funding freezes expanded to Brown, Cornell, Northwestern, Princeton ($2.5B+ new); DEI contractor certification EO requires anti-DEI compliance within 30 days

Key Changes Since Last Assessment

Overall: +0.3
↑+1
Legal / Defying Court Orders7 → 8
↑+1
Major Economic Disruptions6 → 7
↑+1
Cronyism & Retaliation6 → 7

DOGE contract terminations reached $120B with zero cuts to Musk-linked companies; FAA/Starlink procurement directed verbally to avoid paper trail

View full history →
7.1110

Overall Risk Score

High+0.3 from last

Trend (12 months)

4.97.1
Assessed 2026-04-02
Period 2025-04-02 to 2026-04-02

Risk crosses into High territory: Trump signs mail-ballot EO, DHS shutdown becomes longest on record, Iran oil shock amplifies recession risk, DOGE contract terminations reach $120B, university funding freezes accelerate

  • •Trump signed EO directing USPS to gatekeep mail-in ballots (March 31); DOJ voter roll lawsuits expanded to 30+ states; Florida, South Dakota, Utah enacted proof-of-citizenship laws
  • •DHS shutdown reached day 47 (longest on record); Iran conflict pushed oil past $120/barrel; Moody's recession probability at 49%; 'No Kings' March 28 protest drew 8-9 million (largest in US history)
  • •DOGE terminated $120B in contracts/grants with zero cuts to Musk-linked companies; university funding freezes expanded to Brown, Cornell, Northwestern, Princeton ($2.5B+ new); DEI contractor certification EO requires anti-DEI compliance within 30 days

Rule of Law & National Security

7.3High

Operating & Economic Environment

6.8Elevated

Societal & Institutional Integrity

7.5High

Top Risk Areas

1
Legal / Defying Court OrdersHigh
8/10
  • 1.Trump became first sitting president to attend Supreme Court oral arguments (April 1, birthright citizenship case); widely characterized as judicial intimidation; WaPo analysis found administration defied one-in-three court orders across 160 lawsuits
  • 2.22 states told federal court that administration violated Medicaid data-sharing injunction by sharing data on lawful permanent residents and citizens with ICE; legislative provision proposed to strip courts of contempt authority over federal officials
  • 3.Chief Justice Roberts publicly warned personal attacks on judges are dangerous and must stop; four active judges held unprecedented public forum reading death threats aloud; 35 'show cause' orders issued since August requiring officials to explain why they shouldn't be held in contempt
Details
2
Erosion of Institutions & NormsHigh
8/10
  • 1.Federal workforce losses now exceed 350,000 departed (up from 300,000+ two weeks ago); OPM pursuing further reductions as 'priority number one'; Schedule F active with agencies submitting reclassification petitions for 50,000+ positions
  • 2.Inspector general offices lost 16.6% of workforce — exceeding government-wide average; SSA IG office caught altering report on call wait times; replacement IGs have partisan ties and oversight agency histories
  • 3.National Security Archive published 'Disappearing Data Chronology' documenting 8,000+ web pages and 3,400+ datasets removed from public access; CDC, Census Bureau, FDA, EPA, NOAA hardest hit; data covering decades of health, education, and civil rights research
Details
3
Election InterferenceHigh
7/10
  • 1.Trump signed EO 'Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections' (March 31) directing USPS to gatekeep mail-in ballots via state-provided 'eligible citizen' lists; ACLU filed immediate legal challenge calling it 'likely unconstitutional'
  • 2.DOJ voter roll lawsuits expanded to 30+ states including red states like Idaho; three federal courts dismissed cases but DOJ appealed all three; demands include full voter registration lists, ballots, and access to voting equipment
  • 3.Florida, South Dakota, and Utah enacted proof-of-citizenship laws for voter registration; 14 states advancing similar legislation; Brennan Center estimates 21 million Americans lack required documents
Details