Major Economic Disruptions
Government actions that severely damage the economy or markets; major, disruptive trade tariffs; destabilizing the dollar; neglecting critical policy action; supply chain disruption
Why This Score
This category scores 7/10, placing it in the High tier (7-8): “Trade wars, GDP-impacting tariff levels, economic isolation policies”
- 1.IEEPA $166B refund suspended after CBP stated it cannot comply; new CAPE refund system targeting April 20 go-live; CIT oral arguments on Section 122 tariffs scheduled April 10 with 24-state AG challenge (Thompson Hine/Cherry Bekaert)
- 2.USTR launched Section 301 investigations into 16 economies (March 11) targeting manufacturing overcapacity; expedited timeline aims for tariffs by July 24 — timed to replace expiring Section 122 tariffs, creating a deliberate tariff handoff strategy (White & Case/Holland & Knight)
- 3.Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure pushed Brent crude past $120/barrel, amplifying supply chain disruption; EU finalizing up to $108B retaliatory tariff package; Moody's places recession probability at 49% (CNBC/Conference Board)
Score History
Liberation Day tariffs announced; 10% baseline on all imports with country-specific rates up to 49% for China
Constitutional crisis over tariff authority: IEEPA struck down, emergency pivot to untested Section 122, $166B refund order, 24-state lawsuit; 40-50% recession probability
Scoring Rubric
Stable trade relationships, predictable economic policy
Trade tensions, renegotiation of agreements, some tariff escalation
Significant tariff actions, supply chain disruptions, retaliatory spirals beginning
Trade wars, GDP-impacting tariff levels, economic isolation policies
Trade breakdown, severe supply chain collapse, complete withdrawal from global system
Key Findings
IEEPA $166B refund suspended after CBP stated it cannot comply; new CAPE refund system targeting April 20 go-live; CIT oral arguments on Section 122 tariffs scheduled April 10 with 24-state AG challenge (Thompson Hine/Cherry Bekaert)
USTR launched Section 301 investigations into 16 economies (March 11) targeting manufacturing overcapacity; expedited timeline aims for tariffs by July 24 — timed to replace expiring Section 122 tariffs, creating a deliberate tariff handoff strategy (White & Case/Holland & Knight)
Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure pushed Brent crude past $120/barrel, amplifying supply chain disruption; EU finalizing up to $108B retaliatory tariff package; Moody's places recession probability at 49% (CNBC/Conference Board)
Related Executive Actions
View all →Scenario Outlook
All scenarios →Removes tariffs and further constrains unilateral presidential trade authority
Tariffs drop to zero, easing trade friction but creating policy whiplash
Supply chain disruption from Hormuz closure compounds tariff-related trade friction
Full transatlantic trade war; EU retaliatory tariffs hit US agriculture, tech, and services
Refunds partially unwind tariff damage; signals judicial accountability on trade policy
All global tariffs suspended pending full litigation; massive relief for importers
Tariff pipeline ensures no relief even as Section 122 expires; creates permanent tariff cycling through different legal authorities
Eliminates legal basis for current tariffs and prevents future unilateral tariff actions