Scenario Modeling

Supreme Court rules president cannot fire Federal Reserve governors (Trump v. Cook)

Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair but clashes with White House over rate cuts

Warsh confirmation delayed past May, leaving Fed without confirmed chair

Congress passes Federal Reserve Independence Act with veto-proof majority

CIT strikes down Section 122 tariffs at April 10 oral arguments as lacking balance-of-payments basis

Section 122 tariffs expire July 24 with no congressional replacement

Executive order declares national emergency over election integrity, mandating hand-counting and re-registration

Federal court blocks Trump's USPS mail-ballot gatekeeping executive order before 2026 midterms

USPS begins implementing mail-ballot citizenship screening before courts intervene

Federal court issues injunction blocking Schedule F mass firings

First wave of Schedule F firings targets 10,000+ policy-adjacent career staff

Court orders reinstatement of fired inspectors general

Officials held in contempt of court receive presidential pardons, neutralizing judicial enforcement

Congress passes legislation limiting federal court jurisdiction over executive actions

House moves to impeach federal judges who ruled against administration

Insurrection Act invoked to deploy military against domestic protests

Foreign interference in 2026 midterms succeeds due to degraded CISA defenses

Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure extend through summer, sustaining $120+ oil prices

Diplomatic resolution reopens Strait of Hormuz, oil prices fall below $90/barrel

DOJ brings Espionage Act charges against journalist for publishing classified leaks

FTC/DOJ pretextual investigations used to coerce or shut down critical media outlets

Bipartisan procurement reform bill strengthens competitive bidding requirements

DOGE official's conflicts of interest trigger congressional investigation or criminal referral

Direct confrontation between federal agents and state/local law enforcement over immigration enforcement

Politically motivated attack on government official or facility

Democrats win House majority in 2026 midterms, establishing congressional check

Administration publicly demands major corporations pledge support for policy agenda as condition for regulatory relief

Major business coalition publicly commits to political neutrality and resists pressure campaigns

SCOTUS overturns Humphrey's Executor in Trump v. Slaughter, giving president unrestricted power to fire independent agency heads

Congress passes two-track DHS funding deal after April 14 recess, ending record 60+ day shutdown

DHS shutdown extends into summer as reconciliation process stalls, TSA attrition reaches critical levels

EU formally suspends Turnberry trade agreement and activates retaliatory tariffs on $93B of US goods

CIT-ordered $166B IEEPA tariff refund process begins, creating immediate fiscal strain and customs system disruption

DOJ investigation of Fed Chair Powell expands or results in indictment, creating constitutional crisis over central bank independence

CIT issues preliminary injunction against Section 122 tariffs in state AG or importer lawsuit

SSA Inspector General refers DOGE data exfiltration case to DOJ for criminal investigation

Trump-backed primary challengers defeat incumbent Republican senators, reinforcing loyalty-based party discipline ahead of midterms

USTR imposes Section 301 tariffs on 16 economies by July 24, replacing expiring Section 122 tariffs

Planned May 1 nationwide general strike materializes with significant participation, disrupting economic activity

Bipartisan coalition passes Reclaim Trade Powers Act repealing Section 122, permanently ending unilateral tariff authority