Rule of Law & National Security
increasing

National Security

Domestic deployment of active-duty military or National Guard for political purposes; dismantling cyber defenses; politicization of intelligence community; unwarranted military action abroad

7.0
High

Why This Score

This category scores 7/10, placing it in the High tier (7-8): “Domestic military use for political purposes, major security gaps, politically motivated strikes

  • 1.DHS shutdown reached day 47 — longest partial shutdown on record; TSA call-out rates hit 12.35% with 4.5-hour wait times at some airports; Trump issued executive memorandum to resume pay bypassing Congress; two-track Republican plan announced but Congress on recess until April 14 (NBC News/CBS News)
  • 2.Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure since early March pushed Brent crude past $120/barrel; military stretched across domestic deployments, foreign operations, and leadership purge simultaneously (CNBC/Morgan Stanley)
  • 3.Pentagon promotion list purges continued — four candidates removed including two women and two Black officers; IC annual threat assessment omitted climate change entirely; CISA attempting partial rebuild with 329 new hires but still at 70% of authorized staffing (ABC News/Federal News Network)

Score History

July 2025Score: 5
August 202556

CIA workforce buyout offer and early signs of intelligence politicization; DNI began reassigning analysts producing inconvenient assessments

September 2025Score: 6
October 2025Score: 6
November 2025Score: 6
December 202567

DNI fired National Intelligence Council officials over Venezuela assessment; intelligence resources diverted to Greenland proposal

January 2026Score: 7
February 2026Score: 7
March 2026Score: 7

Scoring Rubric

1-2

Apolitical security services, normal oversight functioning, routine deployments

3-4

Unusual rhetoric, minor organizational changes, increased political pressure on agencies

5-6

Significant cyber defense reductions, politicized appointments, intelligence sharing restricted

7-8Current

Domestic military use for political purposes, major security gaps, politically motivated strikes

9-10

Military deployed against civilians, critical defenses dismantled, intelligence used for suppression

Key Findings

1

DHS shutdown reached day 47 — longest partial shutdown on record; TSA call-out rates hit 12.35% with 4.5-hour wait times at some airports; Trump issued executive memorandum to resume pay bypassing Congress; two-track Republican plan announced but Congress on recess until April 14 (NBC News/CBS News)

2

Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure since early March pushed Brent crude past $120/barrel; military stretched across domestic deployments, foreign operations, and leadership purge simultaneously (CNBC/Morgan Stanley)

3

Pentagon promotion list purges continued — four candidates removed including two women and two Black officers; IC annual threat assessment omitted climate change entirely; CISA attempting partial rebuild with 329 new hires but still at 70% of authorized staffing (ABC News/Federal News Network)

Scenario Outlook

All scenarios →
First wave of Schedule F firings targets 10,000+ policy-adjacent career staff
high+1

Intelligence and defense agencies lose experienced personnel

Insurrection Act invoked to deploy military against domestic protests
moderate+2

Military deployed for domestic political purposes

Foreign interference in 2026 midterms succeeds due to degraded CISA defenses
moderate+1

CISA at 38% staffing with election security program eliminated

Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure extend through summer, sustaining $120+ oil prices
high+1

Military stretched across domestic deployments, Iran operations, and leadership vacancies

Diplomatic resolution reopens Strait of Hormuz, oil prices fall below $90/barrel
low-1

Military commitments reduced; force posture normalizes

Direct confrontation between federal agents and state/local law enforcement over immigration enforcement
moderate+1

Domestic law enforcement resources diverted to intergovernmental conflict

Congress passes two-track DHS funding deal after April 14 recess, ending record 60+ day shutdown
moderate-1

TSA and Coast Guard operations stabilize; port security restored

DHS shutdown extends into summer as reconciliation process stalls, TSA attrition reaches critical levels
moderate+1

TSA workforce attrition becomes irreversible; Coast Guard unable to maintain operations

Economic Sensitivity

Full analysis →
Foreign Direct InvestmentSecurity posture affects CFIUS, investment climate-48.3% YoY
Consumer ConfidenceSecurity concerns weigh on consumer optimism-1.8% YoY
VIX (Volatility Index)Security events cause volatility spikes+19.8% YoY
S&P 500Security concerns affect defense stocks, overall sentiment+1.2% YoY
Business InvestmentSecurity concerns affect certain sectors-28.1% YoY