Rule of Law & National Security
increasing

Election Interference

Interference in free, fair, and accessible elections; dismantled safeguards and security; disenfranchisement; circumvention of constitutionally prescribed presidential term limits

7.0
High

Why This Score

This category scores 7/10, placing it in the High tier (7-8): “Systematic disenfranchisement efforts, federal intervention in voting procedures, defiance of election outcomes

  • 1.Trump signed EO 'Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections' (March 31) directing USPS to gatekeep mail-in ballots via state-provided 'eligible citizen' lists; ACLU filed immediate legal challenge calling it 'likely unconstitutional' (NPR/Votebeat)
  • 2.DOJ voter roll lawsuits expanded to 30+ states including red states like Idaho; three federal courts dismissed cases but DOJ appealed all three; demands include full voter registration lists, ballots, and access to voting equipment (Democracy Docket/Brennan Center)
  • 3.Florida, South Dakota, and Utah enacted proof-of-citizenship laws for voter registration; 14 states advancing similar legislation; Brennan Center estimates 21 million Americans lack required documents (Ballotpedia/NPR)

Score History

July 2025Score: 5
August 2025Score: 5
September 202556

Multiple states advanced proof-of-citizenship requirements; DOJ began requesting voter registration files from states

October 2025Score: 6
November 2025Score: 6
December 2025Score: 6
January 202667

Cumulative effect of 108 restrictive laws since 2020; 28 new restrictions taking effect before 2026 midterms; Trump called for 'nationalizing' voting

February 2026Score: 7
March 2026Score: 7
April 202667

March 31 EO directing USPS to gatekeep mail ballots; DOJ expanded voter roll demands to 30+ states; three states enacted proof-of-citizenship laws

Scoring Rubric

1-2

Normal democratic activity, minor procedural disputes

3-4

Elevated litigation, some restrictive laws passed, redistricting concerns

5-6

Significant restrictions enacted, credible interference allegations, election security dismantled

7-8Current

Systematic disenfranchisement efforts, federal intervention in voting procedures, defiance of election outcomes

9-10

Overt attempts to overturn results, term limit violations, election infrastructure compromised

Key Findings

1

Trump signed EO 'Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections' (March 31) directing USPS to gatekeep mail-in ballots via state-provided 'eligible citizen' lists; ACLU filed immediate legal challenge calling it 'likely unconstitutional' (NPR/Votebeat)

2

DOJ voter roll lawsuits expanded to 30+ states including red states like Idaho; three federal courts dismissed cases but DOJ appealed all three; demands include full voter registration lists, ballots, and access to voting equipment (Democracy Docket/Brennan Center)

3

Florida, South Dakota, and Utah enacted proof-of-citizenship laws for voter registration; 14 states advancing similar legislation; Brennan Center estimates 21 million Americans lack required documents (Ballotpedia/NPR)

Scenario Outlook

All scenarios →
Executive order declares national emergency over election integrity, mandating hand-counting and re-registration
moderate+2

Creates chaos in election administration months before midterms

Federal court blocks Trump's USPS mail-ballot gatekeeping executive order before 2026 midterms
high-1

Preserves mail-in ballot access for 2026 midterms; court reaffirms limits on executive election interference

USPS begins implementing mail-ballot citizenship screening before courts intervene
low+2

Millions of voters fail to receive mail ballots; massive disenfranchisement in states reliant on vote-by-mail

Foreign interference in 2026 midterms succeeds due to degraded CISA defenses
moderate+2

Foreign actors exploit gap in cyber defenses to interfere with election infrastructure

Trump-backed primary challengers defeat incumbent Republican senators, reinforcing loyalty-based party discipline ahead of midterms
moderate+1

Party primaries become loyalty tests rather than policy debates; narrows range of acceptable dissent

Economic Sensitivity

Full analysis →
VIX (Volatility Index)Political uncertainty spikes volatility+19.8% YoY
S&P 500Electoral uncertainty reduces investor confidence+1.2% YoY
Consumer ConfidencePolitical uncertainty directly affects consumer sentiment-1.8% YoY
Business InvestmentPolitical uncertainty delays capex decisions-28.1% YoY
Foreign Direct InvestmentPolitical uncertainty deters foreign investors-48.3% YoY