Operating & Economic Environment
increasing

Business Interference

Government taking stakes in or control over private companies; pressuring executive firings; imposing loyalty tests on business leaders; weaponizing regulatory agencies against specific firms

7.0
High
+1 from last

Why This Score

This category scores 7/10, placing it in the High tier (7-8): “Government demanding loyalty from business leaders, forced investments or policy compliance, executive firings pressured

  • 1.Schedule F now active with agencies submitting reclassification petitions to OPM; union coalition filed amended complaint arguing it violates APA and Constitution; no injunction issued as of April 2 (Government Executive/Federal News Network)
  • 2.Federal judge ruled CFPB must continue requesting funds, calling admin's actions a 'transparent attempt to close down the agency'; D.C. Circuit en banc ruling on NTEU v. Vought (defining case for whether executive can disable congressionally-created agencies) expected later in 2026 (Consumer Finance Monitor)
  • 3.Trump signed DEI contractor certification EO (March 26) requiring all federal contractors to certify anti-DEI compliance within 30 days or face contract cancellation and False Claims Act liability; EO count reached 253 with 59 memoranda and 135 proclamations (Gibson Dunn/Federal Register)

Score History

July 2025Score: 5
August 2025Score: 5
September 2025Score: 5
October 2025Score: 5
November 202556

Executive order count exceeded 200; AI EO reversed Biden-era safeguards; contradictory guidance created compliance chaos

December 2025Score: 6
January 2026Score: 6
February 202667

Schedule F finalized (effective March 8) reclassifying 50,000 employees as at-will; EPA revoked greenhouse gas endangerment finding; SCOTUS allowing firing of independent agency heads; EO total reaches 243

March 2026Score: 6

Scoring Rubric

1-2

Normal regulatory environment, market-based competition

3-4

Increased regulatory uncertainty, public pressure on specific companies

5-6

Government pressuring executive decisions, regulatory agencies used selectively

7-8Current

Government demanding loyalty from business leaders, forced investments or policy compliance, executive firings pressured

9-10

Government directing business operations, systematic coercion of private sector

Key Findings

1

Schedule F now active with agencies submitting reclassification petitions to OPM; union coalition filed amended complaint arguing it violates APA and Constitution; no injunction issued as of April 2 (Government Executive/Federal News Network)

2

Federal judge ruled CFPB must continue requesting funds, calling admin's actions a 'transparent attempt to close down the agency'; D.C. Circuit en banc ruling on NTEU v. Vought (defining case for whether executive can disable congressionally-created agencies) expected later in 2026 (Consumer Finance Monitor)

3

Trump signed DEI contractor certification EO (March 26) requiring all federal contractors to certify anti-DEI compliance within 30 days or face contract cancellation and False Claims Act liability; EO count reached 253 with 59 memoranda and 135 proclamations (Gibson Dunn/Federal Register)

Scenario Outlook

All scenarios →
Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair but clashes with White House over rate cuts
moderate+1

Markets whipsaw on conflicting signals about monetary policy direction

Congress passes Federal Reserve Independence Act with veto-proof majority
low-1

Signals bipartisan commitment to institutional norms

Section 122 tariffs expire July 24 with no congressional replacement
high+1

Binary outcome creates massive uncertainty for businesses planning around tariff levels

First wave of Schedule F firings targets 10,000+ policy-adjacent career staff
high+1

Agencies lose capacity to implement or enforce regulations consistently

Democrats win House majority in 2026 midterms, establishing congressional check
moderate-1

Divided government historically constrains radical policy shifts

Major business coalition publicly commits to political neutrality and resists pressure campaigns
low-1

Signals business community pushback against politicized regulation

SCOTUS overturns Humphrey's Executor in Trump v. Slaughter, giving president unrestricted power to fire independent agency heads
high+2

Every independent agency subject to political control; regulatory environment becomes entirely presidential-preference driven

CIT issues preliminary injunction against Section 122 tariffs in state AG or importer lawsuit
high-1

Judicial check on executive trade authority further constrains policy unpredictability

USTR imposes Section 301 tariffs on 16 economies by July 24, replacing expiring Section 122 tariffs
high+1

Businesses cannot plan around tariff levels that shift between legal frameworks every few months

Bipartisan coalition passes Reclaim Trade Powers Act repealing Section 122, permanently ending unilateral tariff authority
low-2

Removes single largest source of business uncertainty; restores congressional primacy over trade

Economic Sensitivity

Full analysis →
Business InvestmentRegulatory unpredictability is #1 investment deterrent-28.1% YoY
S&P 500Unpredictable regulation directly impacts business planning+1.2% YoY
GDP GrowthRegulatory unpredictability directly impacts business planning-70.8% YoY
Foreign Direct InvestmentForeign investors highly sensitive to regulatory risk-48.3% YoY
Corporate Credit SpreadsRegulatory risk priced into corporate debt+18.5% YoY